21 Predictions for 2021

What could go wrong?

Never has the economy been easier to predict!  Here it is: early in 2021, it will be bad, and then it's going to get really, really good, and then at some point, it won't be so good, and then it'll be bad again. If for whatever reason you feel you need a bit more statistical detail, well then join me in 2021 as we thoroughly discuss economic trends and adjust projections (in the unlikely case that adjustments are necessary). Until then, enjoy these predictions, and happy new year!

Economy

  1. The second half of 2021 will be the most dynamic period of economic growth most of us will have experienced in our lifetimes.

  2. Even as the economy recovers, U.S. equity markets give back some of their gains as inflation, deficit, and interest rate concerns mount.

Nonresidential

  1. Bankruptcies among retailers, department stores, and REITs continue in large numbers as the year progresses.

  2. Commercial construction will be challenging, particularly with respect to building of new structures.

  3. We will spend less than ever on the construction of churches.

  4. Construction input prices will increase by >2% this year.

  5. America will finally put together and begin to implement a sensible infrastructure rebuilding plan.

Residential

  1. The supply of homes for sale in the U.S. will remain below March 2020 levels.

  2. Suburban home prices will continue to rise in the context of continued outmigration from cities.

  3. Housing starts will reach levels not observed since the mid-2000s.

  4. There will be an immense amount of design work seeking to position vacant retail space for adaptive reuse.

Travel

  1. Recreational travel volumes will come back with a vengeance (book your vacations now).

  2. Business travel will not, at least not to the same extent.

Office

  1. Many firms will seek to relocate from expensive city office buildings to modernized Class B space in the suburbs.

  2. Many workers will demand the opportunity to work from home several days a week.

  3. Many employers will accede to such demands; but will also hold back raises to preserve cashflow.

Consumption, etc.

  1. Surviving apparel retailers will enjoy substantial sales volume growth.

  2. There will be a significant number of nurses who leave the workforce.

  3. The wedding industry will surge (this is more of a vow than a prediction).

  4. Sales of electric vehicles will skyrocket.

  5. Many kids will begin hoping for fewer snow days.

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Our 2021 Webinars and Presentations

We’re thrilled to announce our 2021 presentation, Anirban Basu and the Chamber of Data. If you’re interested in having me give this wizardly economic forecast to your stakeholders, contact us at webinars@sagepolicy.com.